Peak Oil updates

For those with a propensity (and time) for carefully documented and chart-laden studies here is the newest report from the Energy Watch Group (a German energy research organization):
Crude Oil Supply Outlook

Readers will notice a stark contrast to the models & predictions of the American groups: USGS and IEA from the US government and even ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil). Some of the specific points of difference are in the timing of the peak and the decline rate that follows. The decline rate is higher even than ASPO's projections, considered "moderate".

Now put this together with the (similarly recent) news of China's 11.5% growth rate (albeit slowing a bit now) and that raises the additional question about the actual rate of consumption that needs to be factored in such studies to produce an accurate estimate of "time left".

The EWG study deals mainly with the production/supply side of the equation - and how it evolves over time given the models they are employing.
Crude oil demand has been increasing at a 2% annual rate in recent years, with the lion's share coming from developing countries like China and India. We are yet to see if this rate will tend to stay flat or accele-rate.

As always, a nice starter on the debate can be found on Wikipedia: Peak Oil

No matter which way you look at it, even if you are an incurable optimist - or a member of the US government close to his retirement years - it is not a matter of IF, but one of WHEN. And then the next question is how to prepare for it. It could be our grandchildren, our children, or even ourselves that get experience this coming crunch - do we received it with eyes wide open or wide shut?

And to string the links together - how many of us thought, even only 10 years ago, that we will get to experience first hand the effects of climate change? It may be increased fire danger for me, floods and devastating storms and tornadoes for others, decrease in crop output for yet others. And maybe this was already happening, invisibly and unnamed to us, and nothing has changed but our awareness.

Which is exactly where our opportunity lies - and our chance to become heroes, each of us.