Tuesday, October 23, 2007

CO2 rising faster than previously thought

A new study released today by the National Academy of Sciences points out that CO2 is actually rising at a much faster rate than the one IPCC had taken into consideration in their troubling report. More recent information points out that whereas the average annual rate of increase in the 1990's was 1.3%, after 2000 it has jumped to 3.3%:
CO2 rise on the rise
CO2 rise on carbon sinks failing
This could mean that the kinds of forecasts IPCC included in the report might be seen a lot earlier than "officially" thought.

It is not difficult to acquiesce such a gloomy possibility when the week's news is loaded with reports about devastating fires in a drought-stricken Southern California, tornadoes and storms in the Midwest, and news up a planned global warming suit by the State of California against the EPA.

Chaos theory predicts things start behaving "erratically" once a transition point is reached. And so far, though pressure is increasing and the environment is strained, there are still backup mechanisms at work that prevent chaos from setting in. But once a threshold is reached (perhaps enough carbon sinks disabled, large enough permafrost acreage thawed, certain CO2 ppm density reached?) things can change dramatically "overnight" - on a geological timescale.
How can it not be frightening to perceive such changes within generations - or even years? Can we not understand that this marks an exponential change somewhere - and implies that changes will occur faster and faster and whatever breakdowns are taking place will spread to other (currently) stable areas?

Upon close review, our global economic system is quite fragile (see the current market turmoil that stemmed from the US subprime meltdown), our infrastructure is at best insufficient (if not obsolete) and incapable of keeping pace with the current growth rate and our thinking not in synergy (if not flat out self-contradicting).

Please share with me what gives you hope in such times - other than a stoic "This too shall pass" attitude or "We've seen it before, we'll weather this one too"?

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