Common sense interview with a Big Oil CEO

For some insight from the other side of the fence, here's a good interview with Chevron's CEO (who also happens to be the industry's longest standing chief exec):
Chevron's CEO: The price of oil
I cannot say I feel any more pity for Big Oil's "dipping" profits, down to only over $2B (!) from $5B last year, but it does spell that whatever is happening is: 1) not good for anybody; 2) compounded by other issues (e.g. connected with carbon emission concerns and energy efficiency/waste); 3) not (apparently) changing for anything better in the near future.
Please share with me your "more optimistic" interpretations of this interview.

The Day after Next Year

Well, "The Day After Tomorrow" may be Hollywood, but there is enough evidence gathering now that the Gulfstream is slowing down (well, how could it not, since its engine operates on the basis of temperature and salinity of ocean waters in the Northern Atlantic).
Two separate articles (shamefully for me, both about 2 - or more - years old) point out details:
Slowing Gulfstream - Peter Wadhams
Slowing Gulfstream - from Nature article
The current may not stop altogether, but in some of the scenarios proposed it could veer southwards. In either case, it will mean a significant temperature drop for Western Europe, easily ranging from 2-7C degrees and happening from as late as this mid-century to as early as the next decade.
True, it does seem that we will have enough warning to build our igloos in time, or at least vacate New York in a decent manner.

As always - do not take my word (or theirs) for this - go do your own reading (or research, if you have time) and verify. And look up some counter studies and arguments (unlike me) to bolster your critical thinking on the subject.

One can go back and dig out other alarming discoveries (from even earlier years) pointing out that sudden climate shifts, though not permanent, can take place in very short timespans.
But overall, it does not seem to be a question of IF, again, but of WHEN - and then HOW do we prepare.
Otherwise it might just be best to enjoy our lives as they are, oblivious to the utter fragility of the web that holds us. Carpe diem!

UN warning

This is about being warned, not un-warned.
The UN has released today a report (how many more needed?) intended as “the final wake-up call to the international community” about the danger humanity is facing. Interesting choice of words - that they labeled it as "final". Climate change, animal extinction and unsustainable population growth are a few of the challenges mentioned.

The NY article announcing it also refers back to a two decades old admonition by the former Norwegian prime minister, Gro Harlem Brundtland, who warned that the survival of humanity was at stake from unsustainable development.

There many different reports and studies over these last few decades - and we have heard "point of no return" often enough that it's a good time to wonder whether we have not passed it already...
For hope's sake I would like to think we have not, but everything I learn of begs to differ.

Peak Oil updates

For those with a propensity (and time) for carefully documented and chart-laden studies here is the newest report from the Energy Watch Group (a German energy research organization):
Crude Oil Supply Outlook

Readers will notice a stark contrast to the models & predictions of the American groups: USGS and IEA from the US government and even ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil). Some of the specific points of difference are in the timing of the peak and the decline rate that follows. The decline rate is higher even than ASPO's projections, considered "moderate".

Now put this together with the (similarly recent) news of China's 11.5% growth rate (albeit slowing a bit now) and that raises the additional question about the actual rate of consumption that needs to be factored in such studies to produce an accurate estimate of "time left".

The EWG study deals mainly with the production/supply side of the equation - and how it evolves over time given the models they are employing.
Crude oil demand has been increasing at a 2% annual rate in recent years, with the lion's share coming from developing countries like China and India. We are yet to see if this rate will tend to stay flat or accele-rate.

As always, a nice starter on the debate can be found on Wikipedia: Peak Oil

No matter which way you look at it, even if you are an incurable optimist - or a member of the US government close to his retirement years - it is not a matter of IF, but one of WHEN. And then the next question is how to prepare for it. It could be our grandchildren, our children, or even ourselves that get experience this coming crunch - do we received it with eyes wide open or wide shut?

And to string the links together - how many of us thought, even only 10 years ago, that we will get to experience first hand the effects of climate change? It may be increased fire danger for me, floods and devastating storms and tornadoes for others, decrease in crop output for yet others. And maybe this was already happening, invisibly and unnamed to us, and nothing has changed but our awareness.

Which is exactly where our opportunity lies - and our chance to become heroes, each of us.

CO2 rising faster than previously thought

A new study released today by the National Academy of Sciences points out that CO2 is actually rising at a much faster rate than the one IPCC had taken into consideration in their troubling report. More recent information points out that whereas the average annual rate of increase in the 1990's was 1.3%, after 2000 it has jumped to 3.3%:
CO2 rise on the rise
CO2 rise on carbon sinks failing
This could mean that the kinds of forecasts IPCC included in the report might be seen a lot earlier than "officially" thought.

It is not difficult to acquiesce such a gloomy possibility when the week's news is loaded with reports about devastating fires in a drought-stricken Southern California, tornadoes and storms in the Midwest, and news up a planned global warming suit by the State of California against the EPA.

Chaos theory predicts things start behaving "erratically" once a transition point is reached. And so far, though pressure is increasing and the environment is strained, there are still backup mechanisms at work that prevent chaos from setting in. But once a threshold is reached (perhaps enough carbon sinks disabled, large enough permafrost acreage thawed, certain CO2 ppm density reached?) things can change dramatically "overnight" - on a geological timescale.
How can it not be frightening to perceive such changes within generations - or even years? Can we not understand that this marks an exponential change somewhere - and implies that changes will occur faster and faster and whatever breakdowns are taking place will spread to other (currently) stable areas?

Upon close review, our global economic system is quite fragile (see the current market turmoil that stemmed from the US subprime meltdown), our infrastructure is at best insufficient (if not obsolete) and incapable of keeping pace with the current growth rate and our thinking not in synergy (if not flat out self-contradicting).

Please share with me what gives you hope in such times - other than a stoic "This too shall pass" attitude or "We've seen it before, we'll weather this one too"?

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles III

It seems that though ozone in the upper layers of the atmosphere (our UV shield) is still being depleted, its concentration in the lower layers in increasing. This contributes to creating yet another positive feedback cycle for global warming by hampering plant growth and their ability to absorb CO2:
Increasing near-surface ozone ups climate change

Though striving to only refer back to reputable sources and studies (and not just hypothesis or seemingly reasonable speculations) it is still difficult to discern how much of an impact many of these factors have. The overall picture painted does however point out that the process is accelerating and, whether we acknowledge them or not, with good data and measurement or not, and publish in reputable journals or not, the system is more complex and crossing new thresholds only brings uncertainty one step closer.
The Chinese have this character (Wei Ji) that means both "crisis" and "opportunity". I am yet to learn how to see these times I live in as an opportunity.

ClimateWatch: Sun vs. CO2 study conclusion

And the winner is... CO2!
A newer study from Britain shows that there is no connection between the solar activity and the current global warming trend, at least not on a significant level:
'No sun link' to climate change
It makes one wonder why the proponents of many of these alternate theories are so vehement in their claims and refutation of the "mainstream" hypothesis, even if now backed by IPCC and the scientific community worldwide. Maybe some underhanded industry/political gagging or counter-propaganda to muddy the waters and sow distrust.
One more reason to study more on one's own and make judgements with enough accurate facts from reliable sources, and after considering all aspects, and not just what we want to believe, be it pro or con. This is one area that I consider critical for everyone to have some level of awareness about, before it is too late and we won't even know what is going on as we are getting bashed.
Otherwise, I am just enjoying this mid-July light shower in the California Foothills, like never before...

Peak Oil peeking around the corner

Slowly but surely it seems that the issue of Peak Oil is creeping up in the news:
International Energy Agency warns of supply squeeze
Some say this does not quite stand for an acknowledgment of Peak Oil, but it comes awfully close no matter what is said. Besides, I too believe that they will only acquiesce it posthumously.
What the report points out is that there is increased power in the hands of the OPEC countries, as the non-OPEC production is dropping. Also, intense economic growth in the Middle and Far East is fueling higher demand (that may continue to accelerate, thus bringing the crunch timeframe closer than what is announced).
This may not show as a spike in oil and gasoline prices, but two years from now we will see this steady upwards trend unlike anything else before on the price charts. By then most likely we will be paying double for gasoline in the US.

One solution proposed is a drop in demand: if any of you have any idea how that can be accomplished, let me know, too.
And no, ethanol, solar and other alternative power sources do not count, as they will not be widespread fast enough to make any difference. Besides their own issues (like ethanol's low energy profit ratio, or EROEI)
Maybe if most of us switch to bikes for commuting...

Climatewatch: the miner's canary

Polar researchers refer to the Arctic as the world's miner's canary that foretells what can/will later happen in other areas of the globe. Recent discoveries point out that the pace of the changes monitored might be much faster than expected, taking place under our very eyes:
Vanishing Arctic ponds
There does not seem to be any doubt that we are at a tipping point. The questions that remain are whether we have passed it and have started to plunge or not and if not, what can be done to change course (if anything can be done) and can we do it in time to avoid the worst.
One of the arguments invoked by those who oppose the various theories of climate change is that the Earth's climate has changed before, even more drastically, without the catastrophic effects forecast in our case. Or that these changes are cyclical and have happened repeatedly, some of them every few thousands years or so, and obviously they do not pose such a risk and are relatively quick to come out of. However, the details usually left out are that some of the changes noticed nowadays (like the increase in the CO2 levels in the atmosphere) are something that has not been seen on Earth in a few HUNDRED THOUSAND years. And that, moreover, the accelerated increase that sends such factors up the scale in a few years would otherwise take THOUSANDS of years to occur as part of Earth's cyclical changes.
In other words, it is not that the pattern is new, it's the speed of change that points to a disruption.
Lastly, as a note of curiosity about some of the alternative theories out there regarding the causes of climate change: Climate change - Sun & the stars vs C02

The urban milestone

Recent studies announce that by 2008 half of the world's population will live in cities:
Urban population to double - UNFPA
Of this, however, 80% will be in the developing world by 2030, with as much as 2 Billion slum dwellers.
So when we see these numbers the image to have is not of more and taller megalopolis skyscrapers but larger and larger urban sprawls, with conditions way below what we westerners would consider a bare minimum standard of living.
It is hard, when seeing the numbers skyrocket like this, to not seriously consider the Malthusian scenario - that some say it is already starting to happen in places like Africa.
And again, taking this bit of info over our "inner fences" and factoring in sea level rises due to global warming and the fact the vast amounts of the world's population live in areas that could be seriously affected (see Bangladesh) we see that the urban shift is perhaps but a minor dislocation compared to the migrations that could be caused by these more drastic changes.
The authors of the studies pointed out that more careful planning is required to properly address this urban milestone (which is probably an understatement, since most of these up-and-coming megacities have had minimal, if any planning - and have grown organically over the years).
Another consideration to be kept in mind is that the slums offer the ideal conditions for the onset of pandemics - with the lack of hygiene and close human contact that can promote a rapid spread.
On a more theoretical level the predominance of urban slum population will most likely cause a growing imbalance in resource allocation (food, water, jobs, living spaces) that can at some point determine a conflagration to restore balance. For that matter, no one is safe, even us in our glass and concrete-clad "caves of steel" of the "civilized world".

Martin Luther King, Jr. on the state of the world, 2007

Yesterday, a 12 year old pointed out to me a fragment from one of the speeches of Martin Luther King, Jr. ("The Casualties of the War in Vietnam", 25 February 1967, Los Angeles, CA) that seemed strinkingly accurate in its description of our present world:

There is grave irony in the fact that Hitler could come forth, following the nakedly aggressive expansionist theories he revealed in Mein Kampf, and do it all in the name of peace.
So when I see in this day the leaders of nations similarly talking pace while preparing for war, I take frightful pause.

It is indeed frightening that a 12 year old comes up with such an image of her present world...

Climatewatch: lesser known CO2 emission sources

It seems a lot of the attention to curbing emission these days goes to what's under our eyes, though the solutions may be complicated, expensive or take a long time to implement.
Recent studies though (relevant enough to determine IPCC to include them in their assessment of our current situation in their meeting last month) point out the 8% of the the yearly CO2 emissions are due to degrading peatlands in South East Asia:
For peat's sake
Incidentally, this places Indonesia, home to 90% of these emissions (in Kalimantan and Sumatra) in the third place worldwide, after the US and China!
And apparently, this source of emissions is the easiest and cheapest to address (reported as such even by IPCC) making it very possible (and relatively fast) to put a significant dent in our soaring emission rates.
However, like with all good things, if they do not have the money, and foreign nations are not willing (what's their interest?) to lend that aid - and even the Kyoto framework does not offer a helping hand with initiatives of this sort - then which way do you turn? It can be said "it's their problem, let them deal with it"... I fully agree - and now, if you will excuse me, I need to go turn up my A/C - it's awfully hot in my office today!

Doomsday time 11:55

To give some oomph to the previous post, here is more detail on what recently moved the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to push forward the symbolic clock that marks our world's proximity to catastrophic destruction:
Doomsday Clock: 5 minutes to midnight
It is not the closest to midnight we have ever been, but it is worthwhile to note that the threat has never been as multilateral as today. And included in it is not only what we have inflicted (or can inflict) upon ourselves directly, but natural phenomena like global warming that are escalating beyond our control.

Earth: a "one-shot affair" for mankind

Studying recently several of the theories regarding our possible future(s) I came across this metaphorically named Olduvai theory by Dr. Richard Duncan

Even more than its contents and gloomy forecast, what I found very intriguing is the warning that stirred Dr. Duncan into researching his subject, which came from a rather provocative statement in a lecture by cosmologist Sir Fred Hoyle back in 1964:

It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only. (Hoyle, 1964)

That being said, it seems the warning has been recently reiterated - last year, on quite a different note, but by a similar figure, the British physicist Stephen Hawking, who pointed out that as long as our race's fate is tied to this single planet we are on now, we risk extinction:
Hawking's warning

His list of possible disasters is rather short but to the point. I am hoping his words will be heard.
I would sign up for Alpha Centaury in a heartbeat - though, on second thought, I would wait to see my house finished first and my daughters in college second, but that's still only 18 years away. We'll see what's left of us then...

Did I inspire you to take that course in astrophysics or xenobiology that you were never tempted by?

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles II

Another surprising side effect of global warming (and positive feedback cycle to accelerate it) is the thawing of the methane-rich permafrost in Siberia:
Thawing Siberian permafrost
Warming hits 'tipping point'
It will take time, but it has begun already, and it can potentially contribute a 10-25% in global warming.
The effects on human habitat or its economic implications are another story.

If however, you do wish to see a possible timeline collage for this century, instead of borrowing a horror flick from your video store tonight visit The Frightening Future of Earth.

Econoclast: Peak Oil

Many of us are slowly becoming aware of such issues as global warming. Some are even taking action on some scale. But how many of us so far are aware of a closer danger lurking in our backyard - that goes by the name Peak Oil?

Though I cannot even hope to convey the breadth of scope and information on the subject covered in A Beginner's Guide to Peak Oil or even the effective alarm signal in Campbell and Laherrère's article "The End of Cheap Oil" (Scientific American, March 1998), the short version is this: at our current rate of consumption vs. available oil we have about 40 years before all of that is used up.
Sounds unbelievable? It is. That's why I encourage you not to just believe it, but to study the links above and judge for yourself. Both draw liberally from freely available sources. As a matter of fact, the 40 years estimate is from a publicly available British Petroleum study with data from 2005: BP oil reports
Just go to that webpage and download the worksheet and look up the R/P ratio at the bottom of the Proved Reserves worksheet. To clear the jargon: R/P stands for Reserves-to-Production ratios that - as defined on the BP site - "represent the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at the previous year's level".

Now, the point made is not that we will run out of oil altogether (though that point is also covered in some of the materials there) but that cheap oil is coming to an end. As I live in the US, I find it useful to know that soon enough I will be paying double what I was paying at the end of 2004 for a fill-up:
US DOE chart of retail gasoline prices
Now, my salary has not doubled since, so that is an issue. Especially if in less than 2 years I can expect to pay twice as much as this year, if things continue at this rate.

If you wish to factor in some more global data and correlate with the price of crude oil (inflation adjusted) study this chart instead. You will see how the current rate of increase is nothing like what happened before in the 70's for political reasons - this present increase is steady, though it could be compounded by current or impending political turmoil (Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria). If you sprinkle in a little bit of natural disasters, for good measure (cyclone Gonu in the Persian Gulf, these days, or hurricane Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico, back in 2005) you get a tasty recipe for even sharper spikes.

Well, let's all switch to hybrid vehicles. Not so quick, grasshoper! How do you think electricity comes about? Best option: natural gas (cleanest and most efficient choice, larger supplies than oil, available from less "politically volatile" suppliers. The same BP report gives it 66 years till exhausted... Hmm, much better than oil...) Next best: coal (twice the CO2 emissions of natural gas, though that does not prevent China from opening a new coal power plant every 3 days). In your spare time, you can monitor the price increases for electricity in the US, and try to map it to the increase in natural gas & crude costs. The relationship is complicated, but the relentless increase is undeniable.

Good thing I know how to ride a horse. Now all I have to do is buy one. It will be way cheaper in the long run...

Armswatch: war cycles

Many have undertaken serious studies of cycles in all areas: economy, biology, war etc.
Some theories even venture to postulate exact numbers for such cycles, such as Edward Dewey's 57 years cycle in international conflict or the Kondratiev waves in western economy (50-60 years boom/depression cycles).
It might take some serious data mining and a pinch of modeling skills to propose the right parameters to measure amplitude (or intensity) of conflicts (i.e. wars) over the span of the last two centuries. Or you can just google up some graphs and charts and go with facts gathered by others already. In either case, the frequency is a different issue and harder to contest. And many facts point to a 50-60 years cycle for war on a larger scale (think Napoleon, 1848, WWI+WWII).
Well, since nothing after WWII quite qualifies for such labeling, if we take 60 years since 1945... we get a new item for my overdue disaster list!
This is some serious leap of speculation but it does point out that... I seriously need to watch some comedies these days.

Armswatch: the missile game

I am not an analyst so I will not undertake any interpretations to the news below but it's good to know that
North Korea speeds up its missile program
And accordingly, in the same spirit of stepping on others' corns that triggered Russian wrath in Europe, the US is getting less than friendly reactions to its expansion of its missile defense system in Asia:
US missile defense in Asia
And to join the show of military muscle flexing:
Russia hits target in ICBM debut test
Only time will tell how things will evolve, but there is a well known old conjecture that Man has never invented a weapon that was not used. And now it seems there are quite a few waiting...

a thirst for heroes and myth

Here is a hypothesis I have about one of the reasons why some of the recent blockbusters are so wildly popular (even as sequels, and when obviously inferior to the original of the series):

We are thirsty for heroes - and myth.

A lot can be said on the subject, which I will not discuss (see Joseph Campbell for a primer). And without bringing up the possible causes for this thirst (though you can deduct here that I do have my suspicions) I wanted only to point out one weakness of this "diet": it builds up our ideas about the "outer" hero and fades out the rightful thirst to develop our "inner" hero. Whereas the latter is within our reach, the former... well, maybe I have not been bitten by the right spider yet.

a shorter musing: on raising children

I thought it worthwhile to share with you this incredible paradox we live with - and skillfully ignore:

For what may one of the most difficult jobs in the world - raising children - we receive little or no training whatsoever prior to the experience itself.

We toil and study for B.A.'s and Ph.D.'s and all sorts of other ingredients for our resume's alphabet's soup, but for this most delicate and noble undertaking we barely give it any thought until it hits us like a freight train.
And yes, since you are wondering, I have two.