The Day after Next Year

Well, "The Day After Tomorrow" may be Hollywood, but there is enough evidence gathering now that the Gulfstream is slowing down (well, how could it not, since its engine operates on the basis of temperature and salinity of ocean waters in the Northern Atlantic).
Two separate articles (shamefully for me, both about 2 - or more - years old) point out details:
Slowing Gulfstream - Peter Wadhams
Slowing Gulfstream - from Nature article
The current may not stop altogether, but in some of the scenarios proposed it could veer southwards. In either case, it will mean a significant temperature drop for Western Europe, easily ranging from 2-7C degrees and happening from as late as this mid-century to as early as the next decade.
True, it does seem that we will have enough warning to build our igloos in time, or at least vacate New York in a decent manner.

As always - do not take my word (or theirs) for this - go do your own reading (or research, if you have time) and verify. And look up some counter studies and arguments (unlike me) to bolster your critical thinking on the subject.

One can go back and dig out other alarming discoveries (from even earlier years) pointing out that sudden climate shifts, though not permanent, can take place in very short timespans.
But overall, it does not seem to be a question of IF, again, but of WHEN - and then HOW do we prepare.
Otherwise it might just be best to enjoy our lives as they are, oblivious to the utter fragility of the web that holds us. Carpe diem!

UN warning

This is about being warned, not un-warned.
The UN has released today a report (how many more needed?) intended as “the final wake-up call to the international community” about the danger humanity is facing. Interesting choice of words - that they labeled it as "final". Climate change, animal extinction and unsustainable population growth are a few of the challenges mentioned.

The NY article announcing it also refers back to a two decades old admonition by the former Norwegian prime minister, Gro Harlem Brundtland, who warned that the survival of humanity was at stake from unsustainable development.

There many different reports and studies over these last few decades - and we have heard "point of no return" often enough that it's a good time to wonder whether we have not passed it already...
For hope's sake I would like to think we have not, but everything I learn of begs to differ.

CO2 rising faster than previously thought

A new study released today by the National Academy of Sciences points out that CO2 is actually rising at a much faster rate than the one IPCC had taken into consideration in their troubling report. More recent information points out that whereas the average annual rate of increase in the 1990's was 1.3%, after 2000 it has jumped to 3.3%:
CO2 rise on the rise
CO2 rise on carbon sinks failing
This could mean that the kinds of forecasts IPCC included in the report might be seen a lot earlier than "officially" thought.

It is not difficult to acquiesce such a gloomy possibility when the week's news is loaded with reports about devastating fires in a drought-stricken Southern California, tornadoes and storms in the Midwest, and news up a planned global warming suit by the State of California against the EPA.

Chaos theory predicts things start behaving "erratically" once a transition point is reached. And so far, though pressure is increasing and the environment is strained, there are still backup mechanisms at work that prevent chaos from setting in. But once a threshold is reached (perhaps enough carbon sinks disabled, large enough permafrost acreage thawed, certain CO2 ppm density reached?) things can change dramatically "overnight" - on a geological timescale.
How can it not be frightening to perceive such changes within generations - or even years? Can we not understand that this marks an exponential change somewhere - and implies that changes will occur faster and faster and whatever breakdowns are taking place will spread to other (currently) stable areas?

Upon close review, our global economic system is quite fragile (see the current market turmoil that stemmed from the US subprime meltdown), our infrastructure is at best insufficient (if not obsolete) and incapable of keeping pace with the current growth rate and our thinking not in synergy (if not flat out self-contradicting).

Please share with me what gives you hope in such times - other than a stoic "This too shall pass" attitude or "We've seen it before, we'll weather this one too"?

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles III

It seems that though ozone in the upper layers of the atmosphere (our UV shield) is still being depleted, its concentration in the lower layers in increasing. This contributes to creating yet another positive feedback cycle for global warming by hampering plant growth and their ability to absorb CO2:
Increasing near-surface ozone ups climate change

Though striving to only refer back to reputable sources and studies (and not just hypothesis or seemingly reasonable speculations) it is still difficult to discern how much of an impact many of these factors have. The overall picture painted does however point out that the process is accelerating and, whether we acknowledge them or not, with good data and measurement or not, and publish in reputable journals or not, the system is more complex and crossing new thresholds only brings uncertainty one step closer.
The Chinese have this character (Wei Ji) that means both "crisis" and "opportunity". I am yet to learn how to see these times I live in as an opportunity.

Climatewatch: the miner's canary

Polar researchers refer to the Arctic as the world's miner's canary that foretells what can/will later happen in other areas of the globe. Recent discoveries point out that the pace of the changes monitored might be much faster than expected, taking place under our very eyes:
Vanishing Arctic ponds
There does not seem to be any doubt that we are at a tipping point. The questions that remain are whether we have passed it and have started to plunge or not and if not, what can be done to change course (if anything can be done) and can we do it in time to avoid the worst.
One of the arguments invoked by those who oppose the various theories of climate change is that the Earth's climate has changed before, even more drastically, without the catastrophic effects forecast in our case. Or that these changes are cyclical and have happened repeatedly, some of them every few thousands years or so, and obviously they do not pose such a risk and are relatively quick to come out of. However, the details usually left out are that some of the changes noticed nowadays (like the increase in the CO2 levels in the atmosphere) are something that has not been seen on Earth in a few HUNDRED THOUSAND years. And that, moreover, the accelerated increase that sends such factors up the scale in a few years would otherwise take THOUSANDS of years to occur as part of Earth's cyclical changes.
In other words, it is not that the pattern is new, it's the speed of change that points to a disruption.
Lastly, as a note of curiosity about some of the alternative theories out there regarding the causes of climate change: Climate change - Sun & the stars vs C02

Climatewatch: lesser known CO2 emission sources

It seems a lot of the attention to curbing emission these days goes to what's under our eyes, though the solutions may be complicated, expensive or take a long time to implement.
Recent studies though (relevant enough to determine IPCC to include them in their assessment of our current situation in their meeting last month) point out the 8% of the the yearly CO2 emissions are due to degrading peatlands in South East Asia:
For peat's sake
Incidentally, this places Indonesia, home to 90% of these emissions (in Kalimantan and Sumatra) in the third place worldwide, after the US and China!
And apparently, this source of emissions is the easiest and cheapest to address (reported as such even by IPCC) making it very possible (and relatively fast) to put a significant dent in our soaring emission rates.
However, like with all good things, if they do not have the money, and foreign nations are not willing (what's their interest?) to lend that aid - and even the Kyoto framework does not offer a helping hand with initiatives of this sort - then which way do you turn? It can be said "it's their problem, let them deal with it"... I fully agree - and now, if you will excuse me, I need to go turn up my A/C - it's awfully hot in my office today!

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles II

Another surprising side effect of global warming (and positive feedback cycle to accelerate it) is the thawing of the methane-rich permafrost in Siberia:
Thawing Siberian permafrost
Warming hits 'tipping point'
It will take time, but it has begun already, and it can potentially contribute a 10-25% in global warming.
The effects on human habitat or its economic implications are another story.

If however, you do wish to see a possible timeline collage for this century, instead of borrowing a horror flick from your video store tonight visit The Frightening Future of Earth.

Climatewatch: a solution to global warming

If you cannot avoid the problem you can at least shut your eyes tighter:
US cutback of climate monitoring

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles I

It seems that some climate alarms are starting to go off, pointing out the appearance of positive feedback cycles. A recent article in the journal Science detailed how one of Earth's largest CO2 sinks - the Southern Ocean - is starting to fail:
Ocean CO2 effect 'starts to fail'
This may be too large a cycle for many of us "non-climatologists" to consider, but here is a positive feedback cycle that I think all of us A/C users can relate to: the hotter it gets = the more we need to cool our house/office/car/etc. = the more often (and higher) we crank up the A/C = using more power = burning more fossil fuels = increasing the CO2 released in the atmosphere.
Now that made me feel better. I cannot assume responsibility for the Southern ocean - but I can assume responsibility for driving with my car windows down as much as I can, instead of using the A/C.
The question is - how many of us need to do this in order for this to make any difference?

Climatewatch: some signs of Gaia's fever

I cannot help thinking of the climate warming that is happening on Earth these days as a fever. Without being too familiar with James Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis, nor too mystical about our "living planet", the parallel is nevertheless striking. Oversimplifying: if humans are like a virus, having overstepped the proper boundaries of our symbiosis with the host organism, the host is now reacting with a fever, much like we do when we are sick. To "boil out" the germs.

Some details about the "fever" - it seems that forest fires are becoming more intense - in the context of shrinking resources and programs dedicated to preventing & combating them:
UN FAO report on forest fires
If you live in the US these days, in Georgia (where 75% of the Okefenokee National Park is still smoldering, and the fire is not out yet) or Florida or even just sunny California - you are experiencing it firsthand. If you do not, but are planning to move there, better think twice... There might be some hidden costs you are not considering.
The US in particular seems to be locked in a pattern where the staff dedicated to fire prevention and fire fighting is decreasing and losing confidence, on top of that, partly because of diminishing support for these organizations - and also simply from being overworked. In Georgia, for example, the firefighters are paid for their extra time in vacation days, and not overtime pay. So many have accumulated some hefty vacation spans that is unlikely they can use any time soon - as the fire season is just beginning and winters are no longer quiet times anymore, either.

Climatewatch:Antarctica - a sequel to Larsen B?

Another piece worth considering:
Antarctic ice shelves melting
There does not seem to be any consensus as to the likelihood of the melting of the Ross Ice Shelf or West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but I am sure we will be hearing more about it soon.

Climatewatch:Asia - shrinking glaciers

To consider:
melting Asian glaciers
Note: two of the affected cities are Shanghai and Beijing, both among the world's largest 20 cities.