Climatewatch: Antarctica

It seems Antarctic ice is finally catching up to the kind of loss rate experienced by the ice sheets of Greenland:
Escalating ice loss
Though not affected by direct temperatures increase as much as by warming ocean waters, it could have a more dramatic impact as a lot of the West Antarctic sheet is largely below sea level (as opposed to both Greenland and East Antarctic sheets, resting on rough mountainous terrain which slows down the ice flowing into the ocean). This could lead to much faster disintegration if a critical point is reached or the same phenomenon that happens with the Larsen B shelf occurs again.

Common sense interview with a Big Oil CEO

For some insight from the other side of the fence, here's a good interview with Chevron's CEO (who also happens to be the industry's longest standing chief exec):
Chevron's CEO: The price of oil
I cannot say I feel any more pity for Big Oil's "dipping" profits, down to only over $2B (!) from $5B last year, but it does spell that whatever is happening is: 1) not good for anybody; 2) compounded by other issues (e.g. connected with carbon emission concerns and energy efficiency/waste); 3) not (apparently) changing for anything better in the near future.
Please share with me your "more optimistic" interpretations of this interview.

The Day after Next Year

Well, "The Day After Tomorrow" may be Hollywood, but there is enough evidence gathering now that the Gulfstream is slowing down (well, how could it not, since its engine operates on the basis of temperature and salinity of ocean waters in the Northern Atlantic).
Two separate articles (shamefully for me, both about 2 - or more - years old) point out details:
Slowing Gulfstream - Peter Wadhams
Slowing Gulfstream - from Nature article
The current may not stop altogether, but in some of the scenarios proposed it could veer southwards. In either case, it will mean a significant temperature drop for Western Europe, easily ranging from 2-7C degrees and happening from as late as this mid-century to as early as the next decade.
True, it does seem that we will have enough warning to build our igloos in time, or at least vacate New York in a decent manner.

As always - do not take my word (or theirs) for this - go do your own reading (or research, if you have time) and verify. And look up some counter studies and arguments (unlike me) to bolster your critical thinking on the subject.

One can go back and dig out other alarming discoveries (from even earlier years) pointing out that sudden climate shifts, though not permanent, can take place in very short timespans.
But overall, it does not seem to be a question of IF, again, but of WHEN - and then HOW do we prepare.
Otherwise it might just be best to enjoy our lives as they are, oblivious to the utter fragility of the web that holds us. Carpe diem!

UN warning

This is about being warned, not un-warned.
The UN has released today a report (how many more needed?) intended as “the final wake-up call to the international community” about the danger humanity is facing. Interesting choice of words - that they labeled it as "final". Climate change, animal extinction and unsustainable population growth are a few of the challenges mentioned.

The NY article announcing it also refers back to a two decades old admonition by the former Norwegian prime minister, Gro Harlem Brundtland, who warned that the survival of humanity was at stake from unsustainable development.

There many different reports and studies over these last few decades - and we have heard "point of no return" often enough that it's a good time to wonder whether we have not passed it already...
For hope's sake I would like to think we have not, but everything I learn of begs to differ.

Peak Oil updates

For those with a propensity (and time) for carefully documented and chart-laden studies here is the newest report from the Energy Watch Group (a German energy research organization):
Crude Oil Supply Outlook

Readers will notice a stark contrast to the models & predictions of the American groups: USGS and IEA from the US government and even ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil). Some of the specific points of difference are in the timing of the peak and the decline rate that follows. The decline rate is higher even than ASPO's projections, considered "moderate".

Now put this together with the (similarly recent) news of China's 11.5% growth rate (albeit slowing a bit now) and that raises the additional question about the actual rate of consumption that needs to be factored in such studies to produce an accurate estimate of "time left".

The EWG study deals mainly with the production/supply side of the equation - and how it evolves over time given the models they are employing.
Crude oil demand has been increasing at a 2% annual rate in recent years, with the lion's share coming from developing countries like China and India. We are yet to see if this rate will tend to stay flat or accele-rate.

As always, a nice starter on the debate can be found on Wikipedia: Peak Oil

No matter which way you look at it, even if you are an incurable optimist - or a member of the US government close to his retirement years - it is not a matter of IF, but one of WHEN. And then the next question is how to prepare for it. It could be our grandchildren, our children, or even ourselves that get experience this coming crunch - do we received it with eyes wide open or wide shut?

And to string the links together - how many of us thought, even only 10 years ago, that we will get to experience first hand the effects of climate change? It may be increased fire danger for me, floods and devastating storms and tornadoes for others, decrease in crop output for yet others. And maybe this was already happening, invisibly and unnamed to us, and nothing has changed but our awareness.

Which is exactly where our opportunity lies - and our chance to become heroes, each of us.

CO2 rising faster than previously thought

A new study released today by the National Academy of Sciences points out that CO2 is actually rising at a much faster rate than the one IPCC had taken into consideration in their troubling report. More recent information points out that whereas the average annual rate of increase in the 1990's was 1.3%, after 2000 it has jumped to 3.3%:
CO2 rise on the rise
CO2 rise on carbon sinks failing
This could mean that the kinds of forecasts IPCC included in the report might be seen a lot earlier than "officially" thought.

It is not difficult to acquiesce such a gloomy possibility when the week's news is loaded with reports about devastating fires in a drought-stricken Southern California, tornadoes and storms in the Midwest, and news up a planned global warming suit by the State of California against the EPA.

Chaos theory predicts things start behaving "erratically" once a transition point is reached. And so far, though pressure is increasing and the environment is strained, there are still backup mechanisms at work that prevent chaos from setting in. But once a threshold is reached (perhaps enough carbon sinks disabled, large enough permafrost acreage thawed, certain CO2 ppm density reached?) things can change dramatically "overnight" - on a geological timescale.
How can it not be frightening to perceive such changes within generations - or even years? Can we not understand that this marks an exponential change somewhere - and implies that changes will occur faster and faster and whatever breakdowns are taking place will spread to other (currently) stable areas?

Upon close review, our global economic system is quite fragile (see the current market turmoil that stemmed from the US subprime meltdown), our infrastructure is at best insufficient (if not obsolete) and incapable of keeping pace with the current growth rate and our thinking not in synergy (if not flat out self-contradicting).

Please share with me what gives you hope in such times - other than a stoic "This too shall pass" attitude or "We've seen it before, we'll weather this one too"?

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles III

It seems that though ozone in the upper layers of the atmosphere (our UV shield) is still being depleted, its concentration in the lower layers in increasing. This contributes to creating yet another positive feedback cycle for global warming by hampering plant growth and their ability to absorb CO2:
Increasing near-surface ozone ups climate change

Though striving to only refer back to reputable sources and studies (and not just hypothesis or seemingly reasonable speculations) it is still difficult to discern how much of an impact many of these factors have. The overall picture painted does however point out that the process is accelerating and, whether we acknowledge them or not, with good data and measurement or not, and publish in reputable journals or not, the system is more complex and crossing new thresholds only brings uncertainty one step closer.
The Chinese have this character (Wei Ji) that means both "crisis" and "opportunity". I am yet to learn how to see these times I live in as an opportunity.

ClimateWatch: Sun vs. CO2 study conclusion

And the winner is... CO2!
A newer study from Britain shows that there is no connection between the solar activity and the current global warming trend, at least not on a significant level:
'No sun link' to climate change
It makes one wonder why the proponents of many of these alternate theories are so vehement in their claims and refutation of the "mainstream" hypothesis, even if now backed by IPCC and the scientific community worldwide. Maybe some underhanded industry/political gagging or counter-propaganda to muddy the waters and sow distrust.
One more reason to study more on one's own and make judgements with enough accurate facts from reliable sources, and after considering all aspects, and not just what we want to believe, be it pro or con. This is one area that I consider critical for everyone to have some level of awareness about, before it is too late and we won't even know what is going on as we are getting bashed.
Otherwise, I am just enjoying this mid-July light shower in the California Foothills, like never before...

Peak Oil peeking around the corner

Slowly but surely it seems that the issue of Peak Oil is creeping up in the news:
International Energy Agency warns of supply squeeze
Some say this does not quite stand for an acknowledgment of Peak Oil, but it comes awfully close no matter what is said. Besides, I too believe that they will only acquiesce it posthumously.
What the report points out is that there is increased power in the hands of the OPEC countries, as the non-OPEC production is dropping. Also, intense economic growth in the Middle and Far East is fueling higher demand (that may continue to accelerate, thus bringing the crunch timeframe closer than what is announced).
This may not show as a spike in oil and gasoline prices, but two years from now we will see this steady upwards trend unlike anything else before on the price charts. By then most likely we will be paying double for gasoline in the US.

One solution proposed is a drop in demand: if any of you have any idea how that can be accomplished, let me know, too.
And no, ethanol, solar and other alternative power sources do not count, as they will not be widespread fast enough to make any difference. Besides their own issues (like ethanol's low energy profit ratio, or EROEI)
Maybe if most of us switch to bikes for commuting...

Climatewatch: the miner's canary

Polar researchers refer to the Arctic as the world's miner's canary that foretells what can/will later happen in other areas of the globe. Recent discoveries point out that the pace of the changes monitored might be much faster than expected, taking place under our very eyes:
Vanishing Arctic ponds
There does not seem to be any doubt that we are at a tipping point. The questions that remain are whether we have passed it and have started to plunge or not and if not, what can be done to change course (if anything can be done) and can we do it in time to avoid the worst.
One of the arguments invoked by those who oppose the various theories of climate change is that the Earth's climate has changed before, even more drastically, without the catastrophic effects forecast in our case. Or that these changes are cyclical and have happened repeatedly, some of them every few thousands years or so, and obviously they do not pose such a risk and are relatively quick to come out of. However, the details usually left out are that some of the changes noticed nowadays (like the increase in the CO2 levels in the atmosphere) are something that has not been seen on Earth in a few HUNDRED THOUSAND years. And that, moreover, the accelerated increase that sends such factors up the scale in a few years would otherwise take THOUSANDS of years to occur as part of Earth's cyclical changes.
In other words, it is not that the pattern is new, it's the speed of change that points to a disruption.
Lastly, as a note of curiosity about some of the alternative theories out there regarding the causes of climate change: Climate change - Sun & the stars vs C02

The urban milestone

Recent studies announce that by 2008 half of the world's population will live in cities:
Urban population to double - UNFPA
Of this, however, 80% will be in the developing world by 2030, with as much as 2 Billion slum dwellers.
So when we see these numbers the image to have is not of more and taller megalopolis skyscrapers but larger and larger urban sprawls, with conditions way below what we westerners would consider a bare minimum standard of living.
It is hard, when seeing the numbers skyrocket like this, to not seriously consider the Malthusian scenario - that some say it is already starting to happen in places like Africa.
And again, taking this bit of info over our "inner fences" and factoring in sea level rises due to global warming and the fact the vast amounts of the world's population live in areas that could be seriously affected (see Bangladesh) we see that the urban shift is perhaps but a minor dislocation compared to the migrations that could be caused by these more drastic changes.
The authors of the studies pointed out that more careful planning is required to properly address this urban milestone (which is probably an understatement, since most of these up-and-coming megacities have had minimal, if any planning - and have grown organically over the years).
Another consideration to be kept in mind is that the slums offer the ideal conditions for the onset of pandemics - with the lack of hygiene and close human contact that can promote a rapid spread.
On a more theoretical level the predominance of urban slum population will most likely cause a growing imbalance in resource allocation (food, water, jobs, living spaces) that can at some point determine a conflagration to restore balance. For that matter, no one is safe, even us in our glass and concrete-clad "caves of steel" of the "civilized world".

Martin Luther King, Jr. on the state of the world, 2007

Yesterday, a 12 year old pointed out to me a fragment from one of the speeches of Martin Luther King, Jr. ("The Casualties of the War in Vietnam", 25 February 1967, Los Angeles, CA) that seemed strinkingly accurate in its description of our present world:

There is grave irony in the fact that Hitler could come forth, following the nakedly aggressive expansionist theories he revealed in Mein Kampf, and do it all in the name of peace.
So when I see in this day the leaders of nations similarly talking pace while preparing for war, I take frightful pause.

It is indeed frightening that a 12 year old comes up with such an image of her present world...

Climatewatch: lesser known CO2 emission sources

It seems a lot of the attention to curbing emission these days goes to what's under our eyes, though the solutions may be complicated, expensive or take a long time to implement.
Recent studies though (relevant enough to determine IPCC to include them in their assessment of our current situation in their meeting last month) point out the 8% of the the yearly CO2 emissions are due to degrading peatlands in South East Asia:
For peat's sake
Incidentally, this places Indonesia, home to 90% of these emissions (in Kalimantan and Sumatra) in the third place worldwide, after the US and China!
And apparently, this source of emissions is the easiest and cheapest to address (reported as such even by IPCC) making it very possible (and relatively fast) to put a significant dent in our soaring emission rates.
However, like with all good things, if they do not have the money, and foreign nations are not willing (what's their interest?) to lend that aid - and even the Kyoto framework does not offer a helping hand with initiatives of this sort - then which way do you turn? It can be said "it's their problem, let them deal with it"... I fully agree - and now, if you will excuse me, I need to go turn up my A/C - it's awfully hot in my office today!

Doomsday time 11:55

To give some oomph to the previous post, here is more detail on what recently moved the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to push forward the symbolic clock that marks our world's proximity to catastrophic destruction:
Doomsday Clock: 5 minutes to midnight
It is not the closest to midnight we have ever been, but it is worthwhile to note that the threat has never been as multilateral as today. And included in it is not only what we have inflicted (or can inflict) upon ourselves directly, but natural phenomena like global warming that are escalating beyond our control.

Earth: a "one-shot affair" for mankind

Studying recently several of the theories regarding our possible future(s) I came across this metaphorically named Olduvai theory by Dr. Richard Duncan

Even more than its contents and gloomy forecast, what I found very intriguing is the warning that stirred Dr. Duncan into researching his subject, which came from a rather provocative statement in a lecture by cosmologist Sir Fred Hoyle back in 1964:

It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only. (Hoyle, 1964)

That being said, it seems the warning has been recently reiterated - last year, on quite a different note, but by a similar figure, the British physicist Stephen Hawking, who pointed out that as long as our race's fate is tied to this single planet we are on now, we risk extinction:
Hawking's warning

His list of possible disasters is rather short but to the point. I am hoping his words will be heard.
I would sign up for Alpha Centaury in a heartbeat - though, on second thought, I would wait to see my house finished first and my daughters in college second, but that's still only 18 years away. We'll see what's left of us then...

Did I inspire you to take that course in astrophysics or xenobiology that you were never tempted by?

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles II

Another surprising side effect of global warming (and positive feedback cycle to accelerate it) is the thawing of the methane-rich permafrost in Siberia:
Thawing Siberian permafrost
Warming hits 'tipping point'
It will take time, but it has begun already, and it can potentially contribute a 10-25% in global warming.
The effects on human habitat or its economic implications are another story.

If however, you do wish to see a possible timeline collage for this century, instead of borrowing a horror flick from your video store tonight visit The Frightening Future of Earth.

Econoclast: Peak Oil

Many of us are slowly becoming aware of such issues as global warming. Some are even taking action on some scale. But how many of us so far are aware of a closer danger lurking in our backyard - that goes by the name Peak Oil?

Though I cannot even hope to convey the breadth of scope and information on the subject covered in A Beginner's Guide to Peak Oil or even the effective alarm signal in Campbell and Laherrère's article "The End of Cheap Oil" (Scientific American, March 1998), the short version is this: at our current rate of consumption vs. available oil we have about 40 years before all of that is used up.
Sounds unbelievable? It is. That's why I encourage you not to just believe it, but to study the links above and judge for yourself. Both draw liberally from freely available sources. As a matter of fact, the 40 years estimate is from a publicly available British Petroleum study with data from 2005: BP oil reports
Just go to that webpage and download the worksheet and look up the R/P ratio at the bottom of the Proved Reserves worksheet. To clear the jargon: R/P stands for Reserves-to-Production ratios that - as defined on the BP site - "represent the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at the previous year's level".

Now, the point made is not that we will run out of oil altogether (though that point is also covered in some of the materials there) but that cheap oil is coming to an end. As I live in the US, I find it useful to know that soon enough I will be paying double what I was paying at the end of 2004 for a fill-up:
US DOE chart of retail gasoline prices
Now, my salary has not doubled since, so that is an issue. Especially if in less than 2 years I can expect to pay twice as much as this year, if things continue at this rate.

If you wish to factor in some more global data and correlate with the price of crude oil (inflation adjusted) study this chart instead. You will see how the current rate of increase is nothing like what happened before in the 70's for political reasons - this present increase is steady, though it could be compounded by current or impending political turmoil (Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria). If you sprinkle in a little bit of natural disasters, for good measure (cyclone Gonu in the Persian Gulf, these days, or hurricane Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico, back in 2005) you get a tasty recipe for even sharper spikes.

Well, let's all switch to hybrid vehicles. Not so quick, grasshoper! How do you think electricity comes about? Best option: natural gas (cleanest and most efficient choice, larger supplies than oil, available from less "politically volatile" suppliers. The same BP report gives it 66 years till exhausted... Hmm, much better than oil...) Next best: coal (twice the CO2 emissions of natural gas, though that does not prevent China from opening a new coal power plant every 3 days). In your spare time, you can monitor the price increases for electricity in the US, and try to map it to the increase in natural gas & crude costs. The relationship is complicated, but the relentless increase is undeniable.

Good thing I know how to ride a horse. Now all I have to do is buy one. It will be way cheaper in the long run...

Armswatch: war cycles

Many have undertaken serious studies of cycles in all areas: economy, biology, war etc.
Some theories even venture to postulate exact numbers for such cycles, such as Edward Dewey's 57 years cycle in international conflict or the Kondratiev waves in western economy (50-60 years boom/depression cycles).
It might take some serious data mining and a pinch of modeling skills to propose the right parameters to measure amplitude (or intensity) of conflicts (i.e. wars) over the span of the last two centuries. Or you can just google up some graphs and charts and go with facts gathered by others already. In either case, the frequency is a different issue and harder to contest. And many facts point to a 50-60 years cycle for war on a larger scale (think Napoleon, 1848, WWI+WWII).
Well, since nothing after WWII quite qualifies for such labeling, if we take 60 years since 1945... we get a new item for my overdue disaster list!
This is some serious leap of speculation but it does point out that... I seriously need to watch some comedies these days.

Armswatch: the missile game

I am not an analyst so I will not undertake any interpretations to the news below but it's good to know that
North Korea speeds up its missile program
And accordingly, in the same spirit of stepping on others' corns that triggered Russian wrath in Europe, the US is getting less than friendly reactions to its expansion of its missile defense system in Asia:
US missile defense in Asia
And to join the show of military muscle flexing:
Russia hits target in ICBM debut test
Only time will tell how things will evolve, but there is a well known old conjecture that Man has never invented a weapon that was not used. And now it seems there are quite a few waiting...

a thirst for heroes and myth

Here is a hypothesis I have about one of the reasons why some of the recent blockbusters are so wildly popular (even as sequels, and when obviously inferior to the original of the series):

We are thirsty for heroes - and myth.

A lot can be said on the subject, which I will not discuss (see Joseph Campbell for a primer). And without bringing up the possible causes for this thirst (though you can deduct here that I do have my suspicions) I wanted only to point out one weakness of this "diet": it builds up our ideas about the "outer" hero and fades out the rightful thirst to develop our "inner" hero. Whereas the latter is within our reach, the former... well, maybe I have not been bitten by the right spider yet.

a shorter musing: on raising children

I thought it worthwhile to share with you this incredible paradox we live with - and skillfully ignore:

For what may one of the most difficult jobs in the world - raising children - we receive little or no training whatsoever prior to the experience itself.

We toil and study for B.A.'s and Ph.D.'s and all sorts of other ingredients for our resume's alphabet's soup, but for this most delicate and noble undertaking we barely give it any thought until it hits us like a freight train.
And yes, since you are wondering, I have two.

21st century Damocles

I reckon that the punchline in my previous post was perhaps too subtle.
To amend that: the interesting point is not that so many momentous things are just waiting to happen, but that their cycles overlap so well as to yield, maybe, a compound blow. So this is not just the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads as we obliviously enjoy our contemporary banquet, but a whole modern arsenal (including a handful of M1 Abrams, a couple of siege mortars and an ICBM - pointing our way).
To illustrate: all of the movies listed address the issues one by one. Well, a possible concept for a sequel common to all of them is to first have a mega-earthquake happen, foretelling a supervolcano eruption, and while the whole world is in a frenzy trying to cope with the situation you can add a pinch of solar storminess (not before you dim the magnetic fields a bit more) to fry satellites and mess up communications. And as the cherry on the pie - the flare so happens to knock out the navigation in some test missile that lands in the wrong place. You must admit this would be a real jumbo gumbo. Any directors rising to the challenge can contact me for screenplay. We could call it: "The Hitchhiker's guide to New Earth" or "Safe at Home".

Jokes aside - without fantasizing, it's just good to remain informed. So just read the news more and the blogs less...

Potential - and overdue - disasters

Today I felt quite cheerful, so I decided to make a list of some of the potential disasters that I have learned of - especially those overdue. I have not included the usual fare like asteroids. For those of you who share this sense of "doom and gloom" I am sure you will be happy (or rather, properly concerned) to commiserate with me - and for you others, I am sure you will at least get a kick out of it:

1. Pandemic
It has been a good while since an epidemic like the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 (that presumably infected 50% of the world's population and lead to 40-50 million deaths) or the Asian Flu in 1957-1958 (that caused upwards of 1,000,000 deaths). Studies point out that the interval between pandemics varies, from a decade to 60 years (closer together more recently) . An average 40 years period, taken from the last event that can be considered a pandemic (the Hong Kong flu of 1967-1968) places the next pandemic uncomfortably close. Thus, scares like Ebola, SARS and the more recent (and not yet extinguished) Avian Flu have but elevated steadily the WHO pandemic alert phase to 3.
To round up the picture there are other issues, like the antibiotic-resistant diseases, that compound the risks: see the highly publicized recent case of drug-resistant tuberculosis or the increased occurrences of MSRA and other superbugs in US hospitals and elsewhere. Not to mention that HIV/AIDS has gained by now a pandemic status (it is estimated that 25% of Africa's population is affected)
No matter when the next pandemic is going to occur, it is likely to spread faster - given how much more interconnected our world is these days.
I would take pandemic preparation seriously - it might serve even better than medical insurance in some cases...
Further reading: CDC article on influenza periodicity and C.W. Potter's article "A history of Influenza" in Journal of Applied Microbiology.

2. Magnetic pole shift
Apparently the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity at irregular intervals, but roughly 4 times every 1,000,000 years. The pole shift is usually preceded by a period when the magnetic field weakens, leaving the planet exposed to violent cosmic radiation that it otherwise protects it from. The last pole shift took place 790,000 years ago so some scientists argue that next one is overdue (or, according to others, already taking place: Earth's Magnetic Field Fading). As with all things, there is no general agreement here either, as to how often these shifts happen, if there is any periodicity or they are random in time and how long it takes for such a shift to take place (estimates range from a couple of thousand years to 28,000). I believe someone will come up with a reasonably good model for this dynamical system and some chaos theory mix that will shed some light on the hidden order in this apparent irregularity - if you have any news of it, please let me know!
At any rate, this will not be a sudden flip. Well, I am not as worried about this one then...
Further reading: an article by Bradford Clement in the journal "Nature" (08 Apr 2004).

3. Supervolcano eruption
This could be a solution to global warming, as the ash darkening the sky can plunge the temperatures by up to 21 degrees at higher latitudes...
Although extremely rare occurrences, such eruptions (thousands of times bigger than anything recorded in human history) have a recorded history. A study by geologists in 2001 pointed out the possibility of such an event in Yellowstone, that has a history of such explosions every 600,000 years or so. It has now been 620,000 since the last one.
Further reading: Super Volcano eruption

4. Solar superstorm
In 1859, the Northern hemisphere witnessed the spectacular effects of a Perfect Sun Storm (the most powerful solar flare of the last 500 years) - when telegraph wires in the US and Europe shorted and equipment burst into flames. This happens when the superhot, electrified plasma ejected by the solar corona comes into contact with the Earth's own magnetic field. The flare in 1859 happened to have a particularly intense magnetic field directly opposed to Earth's fields - effectively taking down the planet's "shields" and allowing the flare to penetrate deeper towards the planet than usual.
Scientists expect this next solar cycle that is about to begin (due to peak in 2012) will be stronger than usual: Sun's Next Stormy Cycle Starts
Combine this with #2 above - a weakening magnetic field, and what you get is that smaller storms could potentially wreak even more havoc.
Some ideas along those lines: Solar Storm impact
Combine this with #2 and the incredible dependence of modern society on electricity and... write a book, to make it worth your time.

For those of us who live on the West Coast of the US I would add:

5. Megathrust Earthquake / the next Big One
Studies point the imminence of a magnitude 9 event on the West Coast, where the oceanic tectonic plate is subducted under the North American plate. The area has experienced on average 300 years between the quakes. It has now been 307 years since the last one took place in the year 1700. The event would be accompanied by massive tsunamis that would hit the coast too fast for any warning to be effective.
Further reading: Tsunami-Generating Earthquake
Besides this type of earthquake, even smaller ones could be disastrous and scientists are expecting another one like the 7.9 San Francisco 1906 earthquake to hit somewhere along the San Andreas fault any time now. Apparently, the 20th century was unusually quiet after that event. But the tectonic plates keep grinding, and the fact that so few (and relatively small) earthquakes have been recorded (note: the Loma Prieta 6.9 event in 1989 released only 3% of the energy of the 1906 quake) means that even more built up stress is waiting to be released.
Further reading: Preparing for the next 'Big One'

6. Tsunami
It does not take a big earthquake to generate a devastating tsunami, it seems. Smaller (or more distant quakes) have caused submarine landslides responsible for some deadly waves in recent years (such as the one in Papua New Guinea in 1998)
Further reading: Potential Southern California Tsunami

We have Hollywood to thanks for generously creating awareness about most of the possible disasters above. If you are fond of seeing the world close to its end in a couple of dozens different ways - not involving any other astral bodies or paranormal occurrences - you have a varied menu to choose from: "The Core", "Sunshine", "The Day After Tomorrow", "10.5", "Volcano", "Deep Impact", "28 days later" (and now "28 weeks later").

It seems it might be time to relocate to another planet. Time to go sweep the launchpad in my backyard...

Do you know what the Meatrix is?

Your choice: the blue pill or the red pill -
The Meatrix movie

Climatewatch: a solution to global warming

If you cannot avoid the problem you can at least shut your eyes tighter:
US cutback of climate monitoring

Climatewatch: positive feedback cycles I

It seems that some climate alarms are starting to go off, pointing out the appearance of positive feedback cycles. A recent article in the journal Science detailed how one of Earth's largest CO2 sinks - the Southern Ocean - is starting to fail:
Ocean CO2 effect 'starts to fail'
This may be too large a cycle for many of us "non-climatologists" to consider, but here is a positive feedback cycle that I think all of us A/C users can relate to: the hotter it gets = the more we need to cool our house/office/car/etc. = the more often (and higher) we crank up the A/C = using more power = burning more fossil fuels = increasing the CO2 released in the atmosphere.
Now that made me feel better. I cannot assume responsibility for the Southern ocean - but I can assume responsibility for driving with my car windows down as much as I can, instead of using the A/C.
The question is - how many of us need to do this in order for this to make any difference?

Biowatch: the sixth animal extinction

Some of the lesser known background effects of anthropic impact on Earth, with as many as half of the known plant and animal species predicted to be extinct by 2100:
Animal Extinction
Some of it may mean little to most of us - many of the endangered species are something I will never meet or feel the absence of... Or so I thought... But then fit this in:
The disappearance of bees
I never knew that in the US 1/3 of our diet comes from insect-pollinated crops, and the honeybee is responsible for 80% of that pollination and that even cattle (feeding on alfalfa), depend on bees. And this is not just a gradual process, but a rapid bee pandemic. And we are not even talking extinction here.

Climatewatch: some signs of Gaia's fever

I cannot help thinking of the climate warming that is happening on Earth these days as a fever. Without being too familiar with James Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis, nor too mystical about our "living planet", the parallel is nevertheless striking. Oversimplifying: if humans are like a virus, having overstepped the proper boundaries of our symbiosis with the host organism, the host is now reacting with a fever, much like we do when we are sick. To "boil out" the germs.

Some details about the "fever" - it seems that forest fires are becoming more intense - in the context of shrinking resources and programs dedicated to preventing & combating them:
UN FAO report on forest fires
If you live in the US these days, in Georgia (where 75% of the Okefenokee National Park is still smoldering, and the fire is not out yet) or Florida or even just sunny California - you are experiencing it firsthand. If you do not, but are planning to move there, better think twice... There might be some hidden costs you are not considering.
The US in particular seems to be locked in a pattern where the staff dedicated to fire prevention and fire fighting is decreasing and losing confidence, on top of that, partly because of diminishing support for these organizations - and also simply from being overworked. In Georgia, for example, the firefighters are paid for their extra time in vacation days, and not overtime pay. So many have accumulated some hefty vacation spans that is unlikely they can use any time soon - as the fire season is just beginning and winters are no longer quiet times anymore, either.

Armswatch: rising antagonism?

Here we go again, a new accelerating arms race - with a shockingly overt statement of nuclear conflict:
Putin statement
And taking into account the potential they have, it is that much harder to ignore it:
Russia's nuclear arsenal
Makes me wonder if there is any safe place left on Earth (maybe in the Andes or perhaps Tibet - if you can put up with the melting glaciers...)

Climatewatch:Antarctica - a sequel to Larsen B?

Another piece worth considering:
Antarctic ice shelves melting
There does not seem to be any consensus as to the likelihood of the melting of the Ross Ice Shelf or West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but I am sure we will be hearing more about it soon.

Climatewatch:Asia - shrinking glaciers

To consider:
melting Asian glaciers
Note: two of the affected cities are Shanghai and Beijing, both among the world's largest 20 cities.

Caveat

An admonition to all of us from Francis Bacon:

"Read not to contradict and confute, nor to believe and take for granted, nor to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider."

To gather and put together

Over these last few years of working, studying, meeting people, reading and watching the news - and gaining (painfully slow) a better inkling into how our world seems to work ...
From seeing my own reactions and implicit relationship to the world determined by things well below my awareness - and control, for that matter ...
After seeing myself and many of my friends befuddled, ignorant, jaded or simply insensitive to matters that affect them not slightly...
I felt it was a good time to share some of my thoughts, even just to assemble many of the things I know in a single place to share with others.