Friday, June 8, 2007

Armswatch: war cycles

Many have undertaken serious studies of cycles in all areas: economy, biology, war etc.
Some theories even venture to postulate exact numbers for such cycles, such as Edward Dewey's 57 years cycle in international conflict or the Kondratiev waves in western economy (50-60 years boom/depression cycles).
It might take some serious data mining and a pinch of modeling skills to propose the right parameters to measure amplitude (or intensity) of conflicts (i.e. wars) over the span of the last two centuries. Or you can just google up some graphs and charts and go with facts gathered by others already. In either case, the frequency is a different issue and harder to contest. And many facts point to a 50-60 years cycle for war on a larger scale (think Napoleon, 1848, WWI+WWII).
Well, since nothing after WWII quite qualifies for such labeling, if we take 60 years since 1945... we get a new item for my overdue disaster list!
This is some serious leap of speculation but it does point out that... I seriously need to watch some comedies these days.

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